Evidence

Each row represents a discrete period during which Exposure BTC was either exposed to or sidelined from Bitcoin based on prevailing market conditions at the time. The table reflects timing decisions only, without assumptions about position sizing, leverage, compounding, or capital allocation, and is shown for transparency and historical verification purposes.

How Exposure BTC is evaluated (walk-forward)

Exposure BTC uses rolling walk-forward evaluation — trained on historical windows and tested on forward, unseen periods. The process repeats through time to reduce overfitting risk.

Core principle

The model is re-validated continuously on unseen data using rolling walk-forward windows. Parameters that stop working are discarded rather than adjusted in hindsight.

What this evidence is (and isn’t)

This page exists to show process discipline, measurable decisions, and transparent tradeoffs. It is not a promise of future performance, and it is not designed to maximize short-term gains.